Anyone who knows me well, knows I’m a stickler when it comes to surveys.  I distrust anyone who just tosses out survey statistics without providing the context and methodology behind the results.

However, every now and then I stumble upon a survey or poll I feel IS worth a look.  Such was the case when I discovered this SOPHOS poll on Jason Calacanis’s blog:

60% of Facebook users consider quitting over privacy

Is this a truly scientific poll?  No, and SOPHOS admits as much.  But it DOES provide an incredibly compelling look into where facebook currently finds itself.  You may recall I recently blogged on where facebook stacks up in the forest of social media.  Since then things have only intensified as more users become disillusioned, mainstream media picks up the story and Mark Zuckerberg refuses to care.

This poll, while not scientific, gives us a glimpse into the current user-base.  I take away two things:

First, the % of users who have already quit the service is slightly higher then the % of those who have stated they will be staying.  These numbers also follow standard polling and survey results where “absolutists” at both ends are in the minority.

Second, and more importantly, there is a HUGE chunk of users currently on the fence deciding whether to leave or stay.  A combined 60% if you believe this poll.  The real number may be lower, but I don’t believe by much.  The biggest chunk of facebook’s active user-base are casual users; people who joined the service “because their friends or family were on it” and have no deep loyalty or brand-love for it.  THESE are the people that facebook needs to worry about.

The longer and more mainstream the negative publicity against facebook becomes, the higher the likelihood this “middle ground” of users will be swayed to delete their accounts or simply stop using them.  A “dead” account is just as threatening to facebook as a “deleted” one.

Facebook has survived scuffles in the past because their user-base was smaller.  This time may be different.  This time they pushed TOO far and risk offending too many average people in the middle, people who leave a service for the same reason they joined it….because their friends did.  The market is incredibly fickle, and contrary to what others might have you believe, facebook does NOT have a guaranteed spot at the table.

There is a lesson here for brand managers, marketers and even politicians.  With every fan-base or consumer group there are passionate people at opposite ends of every decision.  However, it’s the people in the middle (less passionate but greater in number) who truly decide things.

We’ll continue keeping an eye on this group as the evolution of facebook continues.