However, every now and then I stumble upon a survey or poll I feel IS worth a look.  Such was the case when I discovered this SOPHOS poll on Jason Calacanis’s blog:

60% of Facebook users consider quitting over privacy

Is this a truly scientific poll?  No, and SOPHOS admits as much.  But it DOES provide an incredibly compelling look into where facebook currently finds itself.  You may recall I recently blogged on where facebook stacks up in the forest of social media.  Since then things have only intensified as more users become disillusioned, mainstream media picks up the story and Mark Zuckerberg refuses to care.

This poll, while not scientific, gives us a glimpse into the current user-base.  I take away two things:

First, the % of users who have already quit the service is slightly higher then the % of those who have stated they will be staying.  These numbers also follow standard polling and survey results where “absolutists” at both ends are in the minority.

Second, and more importantly, there is a HUGE chunk of users currently on the fence deciding whether to leave or stay.  A combined 60% if you believe this poll.  The real number may be lower, but I don’t believe by much.  The biggest chunk of facebook’s active user-base are casual users; people who joined the service “because their friends or family were on it” and have no deep loyalty or brand-love for it.  THESE are the people that facebook needs to worry about.

The longer and more mainstream the negative publicity against facebook becomes, the higher the likelihood this “middle ground” of users will be swayed to delete their accounts or simply stop using them.  A “dead” account is just as threatening to facebook as a “deleted” one.

Facebook has survived scuffles in the past because their user-base was smaller.  This time may be different.  This time they pushed TOO far and risk offending too many average people in the middle, people who leave a service for the same reason they joined it….because their friends did.  The market is incredibly fickle, and contrary to what others might have you believe, facebook does NOT have a guaranteed spot at the table.

There is a lesson here for brand managers, marketers and even politicians.  With every fan-base or consumer group there are passionate people at opposite ends of every decision.  However, it’s the people in the middle (less passionate but greater in number) who truly decide things.

We’ll continue keeping an eye on this group as the evolution of facebook continues.

They get Wade to Contention BUT Ben Foster and his gang of outlaws catch up.  Wade is their leader and they want him back.  Foster’s character, examining the situation, realizes there are only 10 of them against 7 other men holding Wade, many of which are lawmen and sharpshooters.  They have Wade held up in a hotel until the train arrives, and Foster isn’t a patient man.  So looking around, he sees that the town-folk have started to pay attention and he does something truly incredible.  Foster jumps into the street and offers $100 to anyone who kills any of the men holding Wade captive.  Instantly, men (and women!) emerge from inside the town, guns at the ready!  The gang suddenly goes from 10 men, to 100, all incentivized to join the cause!

I have to laugh everytime I watch this scene.  I understand that it’s a movie, and a bit of historical drama, AND this particular exploit brought out the worst in people.  BUT it still makes a great point.  Looking at his competitive odds, Foster applies a bit of strategy and in a matter of seconds suddenly has a new team of people, ready to help him accomplish his goal.  The odds turn drastically in his favor.

This same psychology and strategy can be applied in any marketing campaign.  Reward-based incentives to an interested crowd of fans or consumers can help you accomplish big tasks.  The key is finding the right incentive for the particular demographic you’re marketing to.  In the movie, Ben Foster saw a group of poor town-folk, probably bored and itching for some excitement.  This badass looking gang just rolls into town like rock stars and suddenly wants THE LOCALS to be part of the action too!  Who could resist?

If you’re in entertainment you already have that edge.  If you’re a business with a little less glamour, you can still find something compelling about your products or services that creates a “marketing experience” that your fans can participate in.  The more you know about your customers or fans, the easier to find the incentives.  Maybe just offering direct access to your brand and team for helping you market is enough.  Maybe it’s the promise of a new ipod to the person who does the most.  Maybe it’s literally $100, just like in the movie.

The key is BUILD a great promotion, INVOLVE your fans directly in it’s execution, and INCENTIVIZE them properly so they eagerly participate.  Play it right and you too could suddenly have a gang of 100 townsfolk!